Scientists from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research spoke about two hypothetical scenarios of Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine and their consequences. It is reported by RBC.

According to experts, there are basic and unfavorable scenarios. In the first case, the “invasion” will be limited to the regions in the south-east of Ukraine, cyber attacks are possible. In this case, the West may impose relatively mild sanctions on the Russian Federation, including restrictions on the banking sector and government debt in the secondary market. Also, Western countries will provide even more assistance to Ukraine, analysts suggested.

In their opinion, a full-scale invasion would be an unfavorable scenario, in response to which the West could announce tough “nuclear” sanctions. At the same time, blocking the import of Russian energy carriers, including a ban on the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, could become the toughest measure, experts said.

“This would cause severe damage to the Russian economy, but would also lead to rapid inflation and recession in the global economy, and especially in the EU. This is an economic version of mutually assured destruction, and therefore it is unlikely, ”they said.

Recently, the G7 countries announced that they are ready to impose "heavy" sanctions against Russia.

The story of a possible “Russian invasion” of Ukraine has been actively promoted in the West since mid-autumn 2021. The US has consistently pointed to a supposed increase in Russia's presence near Ukraine's borders, threatening Moscow with new sanctions if it escalates. At the same time, the Kremlin has more than once directly denied any plans to attack Ukraine, on the contrary, pointing to the possible preparation of a military operation in the Donbass by Kiev.

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