Last week, the Central Bank once again raised its key rate to 9.5%. Against this backdrop, mortgage rates are expected to rise to double-digit rates. asked experts whether it is worth buying a home in 2022 or is it better to postpone the purchase for now. And also found out what will happen to apartment prices in the near future. Banks in the near future may revise the conditions for mortgage programs due to an increase in the key rate from 8.5% to 9.5%.

So, Rosbank told RBC that the market average cost of such loans in the first half of 2022 could approach 10%. Absolut Bank reported that if the key rate reaches 11% in the future, then mortgage rates could rise to 12-13%.

The interviewed experts also believe that mortgage rates will only grow in the near future.

Now the country has “extremely high” inflation, notes Metrium’s managing partner Nadezhda Korkka: in January it was 8.7% year, the highest since February 2016. If the Central Bank continues to raise the key rate, mortgage rates may reach 11-12%.

Alexei Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, explains that "the era of high stakes is for a long time." In his opinion, this is evidenced by the general rhetoric of the Central Bank, and not just another increase in the key rate.

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Is it worth taking out a mortgage in 2022

If buying a home is relevant for a person now, it’s definitely not worth putting it off, says Nadezhda Korkka from Metrium. According to her, even if this year to take a mortgage at a higher rate, it will still help save money: apartment prices continue to rise. Postponing the deal now, you can miss out on profitable options.

Moreover, if you wait for a reduction in rates, the solution to the housing issue may be delayed indefinitely, says Dmitry Alekseev, head of primary and suburban real estate at Avito Nedvizhimost.

“I think that the Russians will not see the cheap money that could be obtained in 2020-early 2021 for a long time, therefore, if there is a need to improve housing conditions, it should be done now,” also believes a specialist in the banking sector, head of the representative office of the investment Fund ANIF in Russia Sergey Grigoryan.

There is another option: you can pay attention to the lease, points out the founder of the Realiste IT company (developed artificial intelligence for instant real estate valuation) Alexey Galtsev. Against the backdrop of a potential increase in mortgage rates to 11-12% in 2022, renting a house may be more profitable.

How to buy an apartment more profitably

Now there is still an opportunity to take advantage of some preferential programs, reminds Nadezhda Korkka from Metrium. You can also look at the subsidized rates offered by developers along with banks.

There is also a possibility that subsidizing mortgages from the state will resume, adds Alexei Popov from Cyan.Analytics. But support will no longer be as massive as in 2015-2016 or in 2020-2021. Those who still plan to postpone the mortgage should focus on targeted benefits or take a break for a year or two, he advises.

It is important to remember that there is the possibility of refinancing: even if you take a mortgage at a high rate now, in the future it can be reviewed - on more favorable terms, says Alexey Novikov, director of the Est-a-Tet mortgage lending department.

What will happen to housing prices

It is not worth expecting a significant reduction in housing prices in the near future: there are simply no prerequisites for this, notes Alexey Novikov from Est-a-Tet. According to him, prices can only slightly correct due to rising mortgage rates.

Now most projects are conducted on escrow accounts, and such a business model does not provide for price reductions, the expert adds. The situation on the market is also not conducive to this: inflation is growing, the cost of building materials and wages of workers are increasing.

At the same time, construction may continue to rise in price due to the disruption of production and logistics chains due to the pandemic, notes Nadezhda Korkka from Metrium. And this is reflected in the cost of new buildings. “By the end of 2022, the weighted average cost per square meter may increase by 8-10%,” she said.

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