Russia (bbabo.net), - The draft law on adjusting the damping mechanism of the wholesale fuel market was approved by the government and submitted to the State Duma on February 15. It was decided to increase compensation from the budget in favor of oil companies in order to keep the growth of retail prices for gasoline and diesel within the limits of inflation. The changes are scheduled to take effect from April.
According to Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov, the decision was made against the backdrop of macroeconomic conditions. Due to the ratio of the ruble exchange rate and rising oil prices, exports of products became more attractive than deliveries to the domestic market, which put pressure on domestic prices.
Since the end of 2021, according to Rosstat, retail gasoline prices have risen by 1%, slightly below inflation, which amounted to 1.16% during this time, and higher by 1.8% for diesel fuel. Risks of further rise in prices are associated with a possible rise in oil prices above $100 per barrel. Since the end of 2021, the price of Brent oil has increased by 19%, from $79 to $94 per barrel, while the export price of AI-95 gasoline on the exchange has risen by 26%. The wholesale price for the domestic market increased by only 4%.
Such a modest increase in wholesale prices in Russia is ensured by the work of a damper, which makes it possible to keep them significantly lower than European ones. The size of the damper is calculated from the base (indicative) prices established by the state, above which the budget compensates the oil companies for part of the lost profits from exports when they supply gasoline and diesel to the domestic market. Accordingly, this constrains the growth of retail prices at filling stations. Indicative prices are set by the government and are indexed each year to inflation forecasts.
But the higher export prices for fuel dependent on oil quotations grow relative to indicative prices, the larger in monetary terms the part not compensated by the damper becomes. At the beginning of the year, the growth in oil prices coincided with an increase in base prices for calculating the damper, which also reduced the amount of payments to oilmen from the budget.
Half of the costs of the increase in damper payments will fall on oil companies
To maintain a fair level of compensation for fuel producers, the new damper formula provides for an increase in the share of compensation for gasoline - from 68 to 83%, and for diesel fuel - from 65 to 83%, the press service of the Ministry of Energy explained. Indicative prices will remain at the same levels (that is, they will not be reduced to the level of 2021, as previously expected. -) and will amount to 55.2 thousand rubles for gasoline and 52.25 thousand rubles for diesel fuel, the department specified.
The new damper parameters will ensure greater stability of the fuel market, including in the face of high ruble export prices, says Oleg Zhirnov, partner in the Investment and Capital Markets Department at KPMG. In his opinion, taking into account the measures taken, with a high probability, oil refiners will keep wholesale prices at levels close to the limit values (if the indicative price is exceeded by 20% for gasoline and 15% for diesel, no compensation is paid. - ), which will also ensure Filling stations adequate level of profitability. The beneficiaries of damper adjustments will be fuel consumers, for whom domestic price stability will be ensured, Zhirnov believes.
In 2021, it was the low and even negative profitability of filling stations that was the reason for the increase in retail prices above inflation. Apparently, in 2022 this problem will be solved, but only from April, when the demand for fuel starts to grow.
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