In order to make monthly payments on a loan, now a resident of Russia needs to earn at least 33 thousand rubles. This follows from the calculations of the financial marketplace Banki.ru and the online job search service Rabota.ru. Servicing loans is becoming increasingly difficult, and the situation will worsen in 2022, economists say. In January 2022, Russians most often applied for a consumer loan for 300,000 rubles. This amount has become the most popular among the requests of bank customers, follows from the calculations of Banki.ru for. Loans at the beginning of this and last year were issued mainly for 36 months, specified in the financial marketplace. According to them, the weighted average rate in January 2022 was 12% per annum.

“If we assume that a person wants to get a cash loan in the amount of 300 thousand rubles at a rate of 12% per annum for 36 months, his monthly payment will be about 10 thousand rubles. This will require an approximate monthly income of 20,000 to 25,000 rubles, depending on the requirements of a particular bank,” said Inna Soldatenkova, a leading expert in the banking services analysis department at Banki.ru.

According to the online recruitment service Rabota.ru, the main expenses of Russians are for housing and food. 59% of citizens spend 10-20 thousand rubles a month on housing and utility bills. Another 28% of respondents said that they have to pay for an apartment up to 10 thousand rubles a month. 7% of the study participants spend from 20 to 30 thousand rubles, 4% - from 30 to 50 thousand rubles, 1% - from 50 to 75 thousand rubles or more.

At the same time, 40% of respondents said that they spend from 10 to 25 thousand rubles a month on food, 29% of respondents - from 5 to 10 thousand rubles, 10% - from 3 to 5 thousand rubles, and only 4% - up to 3 thousand rubles. 14% estimated their monthly spending on food in the amount of 25 to 50 thousand rubles and 3% - from 50 thousand rubles.

Thus, the range of expenses of Russians for food and accommodation is 13-125 thousand rubles. Taking into account the cost of consumer credit, for its comfortable servicing, you need to earn from 33 thousand to 150 thousand rubles.

According to Rosstat, in January-November 2021, the average salary was 54,588 rubles. But by region, this figure varies greatly. According to the statistics of the department, in the Central Federal District it exceeds 70 thousand rubles, and in the Caucasus it barely exceeds 33 thousand.

It should be borne in mind that the average salary according to Rosstat is calculated without deducting personal income tax, that is, the income "in hand" for citizens is lower.

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It is getting more difficult to service loans

“Indebtedness of the population is rapidly growing in Russia. With an increase in real disposable income by 3.1% in 2021, the volume of debt on consumer loans increased by more than 19%. It is becoming more difficult to service the debt,” said Ksenia Yakushkina, director of banking ratings at the Expert RA agency.

According to her, the level of marginal debt load (MPL) above 40% (when the borrower gives more than 40% of income to repay the loan) significantly affects the comfort of the client's life. With a debt load above 50%, there is a high probability of getting a refusal in the bank, she added.

“A comfortable level of debt service is a relative concept, its main indicator is the PTI. The lower it is, the easier it is to pay off the debt. The absolute size of the borrower's income is also important. With a PTT of 50%, which is considered high, there is a difference between clients. Let's say one of them has an income of 30 thousand rubles. In this case, half of the income he receives is spent on paying off the debt, and only 15 thousand are left for life. The other has an income at the level of 150 thousand rubles. With the same PTI of 50%, the client already has 75 thousand left for current expenses, which, other things being equal, gives him much more opportunities to maintain his standard of living, ”Yakushkina explained.

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Credit rates will go up

The increase in the key rate of the Central Bank leads to an increase in interest rates on consumer loans. On February 11, the Central Bank again raised the rate - by 1 percentage point to 9.5% per annum.

According to Banki.ru estimates, the Central Bank will continue to raise the rate at least in the first half of 2022. Therefore, we can expect an increase in weighted average lending rates in the market. For up to a year, they will increase to 16-16.5%, for loans over a year - up to 11.5-12%, predicted in the financial marketplace. They clarified that an even greater spread should be expected on the real offers of banks. Thus, interest rates on loans offered by credit organizations for a year can be 11-20% per annum.

“The situation for borrowers has worsened. Until rates start to come down, it will remain relatively difficult. In 2022, bank customers will become even less comfortable due to higher lending rates. Loan servicing costs will rise. Payments for food and housing will also increase. Food inflation will be significantly higher than the target forecast of the Central Bank of 5-6%,” said Oleg Shibanov, director of the Skolkovo-NES financial center.

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