Russia (bbabo.net), - Isolationism is not a closed economy, not a fortress with bridges forever raised, and not a frown. "Russia first of all" is: a) the maximum concentration of society and the state on the standard of living, on demography, on growth rates, on technological modernization; b) affectionate calf sucks two queens (EU and China, South Korea, Japan); c) an open market economy of reasonable national egoists, turning into a "social market economy" and a "big universal economy" instead of a raw material economy; d) an invitation to return to everyone whose families lived on the territory of modern Russia up to 100-150 years ago; e) learn to "sell yourself", take the maximum of this art from the Anglo-Saxon model; f) the flow of only good news from Russia.
Isolationism is politics, when the main topics of the talk show are the middle class building their houses boom, when people yell at each other, proving whose house is better.
We have every means within the country to accelerate the economy to a stable growth rate of 6-8% on the basis of domestic demand. It is only necessary to normalize credit and interest rates, drastically reduce the administrative burden, strengthen tax incentives, aim taxes at growth, remove a lot of unnecessary restrictions from small and medium-sized businesses and the middle class, engage in large projects of high-speed roads, low-rise housing, land "for all", mass arrangement of all settlements, and not just capitals. These are huge markets and a lot of new jobs for every taste and, inevitably, an increase in prosperity. If we add to this, as an investment, part of the excess cash reserves accumulated by the state from raw materials, we get a powerful, desired lever for growth.
We have a lot of free production capacity, even without new capital investments. The level of use in Russia of the average annual production capacity for bricks is 36-37%, for mortars and concretes - 30%, for Portland cement - 54%, for bulldozers - 33%, for road rollers - 34%, for concrete mixers - 18%, for cranes - from 17 to 25 %, truck cranes - 42%, excavators - 21%, concrete trucks - 22% (2020, EMISS of Rosstat). What about other "complicated things"? 43% of power is used for integrated electronic circuits, 50% for printed circuit boards, 54% for laptops, 10% for radios, 43% for televisions, 51% for refrigerators, 11 to 48% for electric motors, and 11 to 48% for internal combustion engines. 31%, bearings - 17%, machine tools - from 3 to 26%, helicopters - 28%, motorcycles - 28%, trolleybuses - 20%.
Reasonable isolationism is the maximum possible to do in Russia itself, to employ, first of all, those who live in Russia, with the highest demands on the quality and price of products. Is it easy to say? No, it's not easy, but if this is an official ideology backed up by an easy, calm, helpful "atmosphere" for business, then it will inevitably give rise to a rapid growth in domestic demand and supply. The main thing is quality (we suffer from this), prices (often too high), demonopolization, competition, the flourishing of small and medium businesses.
Isolationism is politics when the main topics of the talk show are the house building boom
How to compete with imports in an open economy? The answer is cheap credit, a moderately weak ruble, low taxes, strong tax incentives, aid, and not the punitive hand of the state. But what else can be done to fix it? What if we are already dependent on imports for 60-90% in the means of production and no less heavily in consumer goods (but not in food)? What if often the localization of production is a form, and behind it are foreign sources or components plus foreign equipment? What if foreign companies are happy to consider Russia as a sales market, but with much less joy as a place to locate production? Although we know other examples (cars, refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, furniture, food).
Here are the answers. First, growth on an internal basis, everything is there for this, and then “they” will not be able to resist. Capital will never be able to resist high growth rates of 6-8% in front of high profitability. He will line up, despite the sanctions, to enter the interior of the country performing an economic miracle. Second. Maximum maximum incentives for foreign direct investment in non-commodity sectors (in the transfer of technology, equipment and brands). Rejection of any "schemes" based on the importation of labor and the creation, in fact, of national enclaves within Russia, with the export of profits. Third. Cautious, constant review of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, pushing exporters to move production to Russia. Fourth. For each group of goods imported to us, key foreign manufacturers are well known. Each specialist will easily name them. Can anyone, on behalf of the Russian state, start negotiations with them on transferring part of the capacities to our home? And on what terms? Is it possible to make these negotiations a mass, in-line work?Any capital will line up to enter the country performing the economic miracle
What then can we expect? More likely to freeze conflicts and sanctions, as happened with Turkey and Northern Cyprus. Fewer complaints that "we are totally behind." Not such a sad statistics from the IMF, when at all times the main direct investors in Russia are offshore companies (Cyprus, the Caribbean, the Netherlands), while China or Germany invest at a minimum. In 2020, we received $2.2 billion from China, and $2.5 billion from Hong Kong (1% of direct investment in Russia). From Germany - 18.1 billion dollars, 4%. It will take shape, albeit little, a different picture - an economy accelerating at speed, where you need to have time to get to. Instead of an economy of everything for export, there is an economy of import of ideas, capital, technology and, most importantly, specialists.
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