USA (bbabo.net), - This year, China will continue to increase imports of Russian gas and will be Gazprom’s largest consumer for the second year in a row. At the same time, supplies to Europe will remain more profitable. Bloomberg reports this with reference to the forecast of the Russian Ministry of Economy.
“Gas prices for China are expected to be 28% lower than for Russia’s European customers until at least 2027,” Bloomberg reports, citing an economic forecast from the Russian Ministry of Economy.
The agency provides data that, for example, in 2024, the average export price for Russian gas for China will be $257 per thousand cubic meters, and for Europe, including Turkey, $320.3. In subsequent years, the cost for China will decrease, while stable prices are expected in Europe. In 2025, they predict $243.7 for China and $320.1 for Europe. In 2026 - $233 and $320, and in 2027 - $227.8 and $315.4, respectively.
Last fall, the government forecast for export gas prices was published by Reuters. For 2024, the average price was expected to be $271.6 for China and $481.7 for Europe.
Obviously, this difference is due to the fact that long-term contracts with Turkish and European companies are tied to stock exchange quotes, and with Chinese consumers - to the cost of the oil basket.
Since 2021, Gazprom has reduced supplies to Europe by almost five times due to sanctions and counter-sanctions. And the largest buyer is Turkey, which imported more than 21 billion cubic meters in 2023, according to the EPDK regulator.
At the same time, Gazprom is increasing planned gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia. This year they should grow by more than 7 billion cubic meters - up to 30 billion cubic meters. And from 2025, the contract will amount to 38 billion cubic meters.
China also receives LNG from the Yamal LNG, Cryogas Vysotsk, Sakhalin-2 and Portovaya projects. Interfax reported, citing Chinese customs, that in February of this year Russia became the largest gas supplier to China. 3.1 billion cubic meters were supplied through the pipeline and in the form of LNG: 2.5 billion - through the Power of Siberia, and 593 million cubic meters - in the form of LNG. The increase in supplies allowed it to bypass Turkmenistan (2.4 billion cubic meters) and Australia (2.98 billion cubic meters).
The main change in Gazprom’s export strategy should be the construction of Power of Siberia 2. If pipeline gas is now supplied to China from the Chayandinskoye and Kovyktinskoye fields specially developed for this purpose, then the resource base for the second project will be the fields of Western Siberia and Yamal, from which supplies are made to Europe.
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