Russia (bbabo.net), - Sociologists, transport specialists and economists of the Tyumen University continue to work on the project "Model for the transformation of urban transport systems, taking into account the impact on society and the economy during the coronavirus." Although the interdisciplinary study will last until mid-2023, scientists are already ready to share some of the results with our readers. Read more in an interview with Dmitry Zakharov, Head of the Department of Motor Transport Operations at the Tyumen Industrial University.

Dmitry Aleksandrovich, what are the main trends in the transport sector of Russian cities?

Dmitry Zakharov: Recently, we have seen a change in the trend towards motorization, which has been stable for about three decades. Now its pace is declining (if earlier the growth was 10 percent annually, now it is only three) under the influence of economic factors (income of the population, the cost of cars and the cost of their maintenance) and the strategy of the authorities, giving priority to public transport (another trend, and quite fresh). And suddenly, in 2020, two strong trends were captured by… the coronavirus. What happened?

At the first stage, sociologists interviewed more than a thousand residents of 20 cities across the country, from Moscow and St. Petersburg to small towns in Yugra and Yamal, about how their mobility has changed during the pandemic. The results are as follows: almost 7 percent of respondents in 2020 completely gave up traveling by public transport, 26.7 - from part of the trips. The number of movements has changed in 43 percent of the respondents. Almost 46 percent said they fear contact with sick people in public places, including buses, trolleybuses, and trams. All this led to a decrease in passenger traffic in 2021 to 20 percent. But the number of trips by private car last season decreased slightly - by only 1-1.5 percent. This means that cities still have problems associated with congestion, accidents, air pollution, and loss of time on the road.

When refusing to travel by public transport, people choose their car, taxi, car sharing, scooters, walking. The choice varies depending on the locality. In small and medium-sized cities, where distances are shorter, residents prefer a taxi or a walk. In megacities, the situation is different - there are huge distances (it’s expensive to go by taxi, you can’t walk on foot), so personal cars and means of individual mobility are in demand.

The pandemic, of course, affects people's choices about how to travel. Transport demand is changing. This means that the transport offer needs to be adjusted. But will this trend turn out to be much stronger than the uptrend for motorization? It's not clear yet. Now the population is set differently: someone got sick, got vaccinated and stopped being afraid of traveling. New surveys are needed to understand the dynamics.

Almost 7 percent of respondents in 2020 completely gave up traveling by public transport, 26.7 percent - partially, fearing contact with sick people

Is the transport system itself ready to change, adapt to people?

Dmitry Zakharov: Ideally, this process is mutual: if the system adapts to the needs of citizens, then they should also understand the limited capabilities of the transport complex, the budget laid down for it, and try to take this into account in route planning.

We study the ability of urban transport systems to transform effectively with the help of simulation modeling. For example, it is possible to increase the number of flights by the same number of buses by increasing the speed of communication, which in principle will make it possible to carry the same number of passengers with less occupancy of the cabin to ensure social distance. It's necessary. Here are the figures published last summer by the operational headquarters: more than 46 percent of the sick people were infected in family foci, 27 at work, 23 in public places and transport.

But how to increase the speed? The measures are known: dedicated lanes for public transport, the creation of priority for buses when passing difficult intersections through adaptive control of traffic lights. And then we need to look at the increase in the length of bike paths, the development of taxi and car sharing services, the distribution of means of individual mobility. Business seems to be ready to invest in the same electric scooters, but there are a lot of questions about the safe organization of traffic - this is already a problem at the federal level. In Europe, bicycles were in high demand during the pandemic. But in Russia, there was no growth in cycling.At the last stage of the project, we plan to study the transformation of transport systems, taking into account economic costs for different categories of cities. We will compare the effectiveness of an extensive approach - increasing the number of buses or replacing them with more spacious ones - and an intensive approach based on modern technologies and optimizing the parameters of the transport infrastructure. In the plans - to evaluate the decisions that may be required when revising the standards of the "Social standard of transport services for the population in the implementation of passenger traffic." It is clear that replacing or purchasing buses is always more expensive than creating dedicated lanes or managing traffic lights. In general, we want to develop a methodology by which municipal authorities can assess the options and effects of reconfiguring the transport system.

And what about carriers? I think the pandemic has hit them the hardest.

Dmitry Zakharov: After the introduction of the high alert mode in April 2020, the number of passengers carried on most routes in Tyumen decreased by 75.4 percent compared to the same period in 2019. In the second wave of restrictions, in November, traffic fell by 35.3 percent. This area still survives with difficulty: the income from ticket sales, while maintaining the planned number of flights, not only decreased, but fell significantly. In some cities, companies have stopped working on municipal routes, many have closed. Ensuring the sustainability of the transport system should become the basis for a dialogue between transport workers and authorities.

In parallel, you are busy with another interesting project on a similar topic. Tell us about it, please.

Dmitry Zakharov: He is involved in technological solutions for the implementation of the MaaS (Mobility as a Service) concept in cities, which is based on the partial rejection of personal transport in favor of public transport, rental and sharing, as well as the introduction of unmanned vehicles and dynamic (formed at the request of passengers) public transport routes. The point of the concept is not to increase the number of cars in cities, but to develop other, no less comfortable modes of transportation and transport technologies. And the territories allocated for parking in the business and cultural-historical parts of the cities will be converted into public spaces for residents.

We have recently modeled how traffic is affected by unmanned vehicles. As long as their share in the traffic is less than 40-60 percent, there will be no significant effect from reducing congestion at intersections. Let's say a person came to work and sent an unmanned vehicle offline to a storage location (for example, home) - this will also load the roads. The topic is important. It needs to be carefully considered.

Another important factor influencing motorization and the frequency of use of personal cars is the demographic structure of the population. A sociological survey showed that families with children, compared to other groups of the population, use cars more often and in the majority are not ready to change to another transport. Russians also do not want to use bicycles in the cold season, although they are ridden in Scandinavia in winter. Simulated free public transport. The result is similar to the one that was previously obtained in Tallinn in real life: there was no global increase in the share of travel by public transport and a decrease in travel by private cars. Bus ridership grew only at the expense of cyclists and pedestrians, while those who traveled by car continued to do so. It is not the tariff of 29 rubles that limits the use of public transport by car owners, but the need for a person to make as many trips as possible during the day: to and from work, with children in classes and circles, for groceries... In the study, we assess people's readiness to make technological and managerial decisions with the development of the MaaS concept.

Could she take root in Russia?

Dmitry Zakharov: Moscow's experience shows that people are slowly but still accepting. Moreover, in the capital this is achieved through huge investments in the development of the metro, city trains and the high cost of parking spaces. But other cities, alas, do not have such resources. It is necessary to compare the desires and needs of people in movement, the possibilities of the budget and the ability of the transport system of cities to adapt.

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