Russia (bbabo.net), - Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank:

We expect that in the last week of this year the ruble will trade in the range of 73-75 against the dollar and 82.5-84.5 against the euro.

In the first half of the week, the ruble will be supported by a peak in tax payments, when Russian exporters sell foreign currency earnings to settle with the budget. Also on the side of the Russian currency will be high prices for oil and gas, which provide a significant inflow of foreign currency into the country on the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation.

In turn, high ruble interest rates support the inflow of foreign capital through the financial account. In addition, the attractiveness of ruble deposits and ruble bonds increased for Russian investors after the key rate was raised to 8.5% per annum.

Restraining factors for the strengthening of the ruble are the daily purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budgetary rule, the seasonal weakness of the ruble in December due to the increased demand for foreign exchange for the purchase of imported goods, payments on foreign debt of corporations and foreign travel trips for the New Year holidays.

In the second half of the week, moderate pressure on the ruble is possible due to the likely profit fixation in ruble instruments and the desire of a number of investors to leave for the long New Year holidays in protective instruments such as the dollar and the euro.

In the first quarter, we expect the ruble to strengthen to 71 against the dollar and 81 against the euro, thanks to the seasonally strong current account of the RF balance of payments.

Oil

Vladimir Evstifeev, Head of the Analytical Department of Zenit Bank :

- The oil market demonstrates a high ability to recover from failures. The situation with the epidemiological situation in the world is worsening, the risks of a greater danger of the omicron strain continue to affect the entire segment of risky assets. However, new waves of the pandemic turn out to be less destructive for the economy due to greater preparedness for such challenges, therefore, the negative impact on oil prices is not always pronounced.

The same applies to the more harsh rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, which does not lead to sales in the stock market and the strengthening of the dollar. Industry statistics from the US indicate a continuation of the downward trend in commercial inventories, which also confirms that there is sufficient demand to keep prices above $ 70 per barrel.

Until the end of the year, the oil market has every chance of keeping current levels and is likely to remain within the range of $ 73-76 per barrel.

Exchange

Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist, BCS World of Investments :

- As a rule, the activity of investors noticeably decreases before the New Year holidays. The volatility of stock indices in the final trading week of the year may drop to a minimum, purchases may be of a point nature. Geopolitical signals could be potential violators of this holiday tradition. However, taking into account the coming Christmas holidays in Western countries, a sharp negative in this plane seems unlikely to us.

Another factor that makes investors wary is the coronavirus, or rather, its omicron strain, which spreads much faster than its predecessors. As of December 23, the number of confirmed cases of the spread of COVID-19 in the world amounted to 964.1 thousand people. This is the second highest daily value since the start of the pandemic.

In our opinion, in the absence of a pronounced general market or foreign policy negative, the Russian market can trade mainly in a neutral manner. The Moscow Exchange index may move within the range of 3645-3775 points during the week, the RTS index - 1520-1650 points.

bbabo.Net