The Parliament of Kazakhstan approved amendments depriving the first president of the country, Nursultan Nazarbayev, of the remaining levers of power. Now the current head of the country, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, can single-handedly make decisions on both domestic and foreign policy. Kazakh and Russian political scientists told whether the departure of the Elbasy into the shadows will affect the real policy of the state.

Elbasy no longer decides here

On February 2, the Mazhilis of Kazakhstan agreed with the Senate's amendments to the country's legislation, which abolished the need to coordinate the main directions of domestic and foreign policy with ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev.

In addition, the ex-president was deprived of the right to head the Security Council and the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan (ANC, a consultative and advisory body) for life. All these posts are now assigned to the current head of state, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Nazarbayev retained the title of "elbasy" - the leader of the nation. However, only symbolic powers remained with him - the right to speak before parliament, to be a member of the Constitutional Council and to be an honorary senator.

Earlier, on January 28, Tokayev replaced Nazarbayev from the main post of the ruling Nur Otan party, and at the height of the protests he himself became the head of the Security Council. He has been heading the ANC since 2021.

Thus, the transit of power is officially over, and now no one doubts who is the most important in Kazakhstan.

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Friendship with everyone who wants it

The interviewed experts agreed that cardinal changes are unlikely to take place in Kazakhstan's foreign policy in the near future, also because Tokayev himself is one of its founders and conductors. The fact is that from 1994 to 1999 and from 2002 to 2007 he served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country.

Kazakh politician, ex-presidential candidate in 2019 Amirzhan Kosanov, in a conversation with, expressed doubts that Tokayev has reasons to turn around and pursue a different policy. The incumbent president, he said, is likely to try to maintain a multi-vector course.

“The events that are connected with the natural departure from the politics of Nursultan Nazarbayev, in my opinion, will not affect the foreign policy of Kazakhstan in any way. A multi-vector policy is useful. Moreover, we are located between two great neighbors - Russia and China. But at the same time, we have very good relations with other countries, both from the East and the West. Kazakhstan, in my opinion, is getting out of these difficult geopolitical crisis situations without losses,” Kosanov said.

Andrei Kazantsev, chief researcher at IMI MGIMO, in a conversation with expressed the opinion that if under Nazarbayev Kazakhstan’s multi-vector approach resembled a “widely opened fan”, then under Tokayev it will still “slightly collapse”, but by no means because of his desire.

“It's just that there won't be the former opportunities for such a policy now. And not even because Tokayev personally owes a lot to Vladimir Putin, who supported him at a time of crisis, and Xi Jinping, who also supported him with an important personal message.

More importantly, in the summer of 2021, the Americans withdrew their troops from Afghanistan, and it became clear to everyone that Central Asia was not among their priorities. And this means that the main driver of the Western vector - the Americans - is no longer interested in the region to the same extent as it was before. The Europeans at first grumbled a little about this, as they do not want Russia and China to take control of the region for themselves, but they do not want to do anything to avoid this. The Western vector is winding down on its own,” the expert said.

However, this does not mean at all that there will be no relations between Kazakhstan and Western countries at all, Kazantsev believes. He explains that it is only about reducing their intensity.

Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS, also sees no serious prerequisites for changing the established model of Kazakhstan in relations with other countries.

“The current authorities have no interest in changing priorities, because they have been justified and time-tested,” he said.

At the same time, the expert admits a cooling of Kazakhstan's political relations with the West, given the criticism of the leadership of Kazakhstan for tough actions during the January events by the European Union and the European Parliament.

“But, it seems to me that these are tactical things. Strategically, they do not change the essence, because so far no one plans to curtail their activity in the oil and gas sector and other industries, ”Pritchin believes.

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No need to choose

Andrey Kazantsev from MGIMO is confident that the Russian and Chinese vectors in Kazakhstan's foreign policy will strengthen under Tokayev's sole rule.

“And here Kazakhstan will not have to choose between them, because now Moscow and Beijing are not alternative to each other.But if you choose between the West, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, then Tokayev, apparently, will choose the latter,” he says.

Kazakh politician Kosanov believes his country's close relationship with Russia is not in danger.

“Kazakhstan and Russia are eternal neighbors, allies and friends. We are members of the Eurasian Union and are burdened with its obligations. We have 7,500 km of common border, large diasporas, centuries-old friendship, and the economy is interconnected. Therefore, I do not think that there will be some kind of sharp turn in one direction or another, ”he said.

Stanislav Pritchin agreed that the latest statements in the CSTO and the EAEU once again indicate that relations between Moscow and Nur-Sultan remain a priority for the latter.

At the same time, the analyst agrees that relations with Beijing can also be called key for him, as evidenced, for example, by frequent contacts between diplomats of the two countries.

But at the same time, a number of problems that worry the authorities of Kazakhstan do not go away.

“They need to resolve the accumulated issues with China. For example, problems with crossing the Khorgos customs post, which, due to covid restrictions, works with serious difficulties and delays, and, of course, affects trade relations between countries. China has been the leader for the past few years in terms of trade turnover in Kazakhstan's foreign trade, and at the end of last year, Russia confidently overtook it. This is largely due to problems at customs,” says an expert from IMEMO RAS.

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Turkish Bazaar

It is worth noting that against the background of unrest in Kazakhstan, China and Turkey publicly supported the authorities of this state, including at forums with the participation of its neighbors. We are talking about the online summit of China with the five states of Central Asia and the online summit of the foreign ministers of the Organization of Turkic States, respectively. Pritchin believes that the last one, which took place on January 11, immediately after the acute phase of the crisis, the goal was to "politically and psychologically support the Kazakh leadership."

Amirzhan Kosanov, for his part, advised the Russians to "separate the wheat from the chaff when they talk about Turkey's great influence on Kazakhstan."

“Turkey, like all independent states, can pursue its own policy. It has its own tactical and strategic interests. And, for example, Kazakhstan does not interfere in Turkey's relations with Russia. But at the same time, no one cancels our common Turkic origin, common history.

Therefore, the strengthening of the Turkic vector, when we want to restore our cultural and economic relations with the Turkic world, is a natural process.

This is the same as the "Slavic Bazaar" or the Slavic Union. And when Russians talk about Ukraine and Belarus, this does not at all apply to interstate relations between Kazakhstan and Russia,” he said.

Expert Kazantsev believes that the ideological factor in relations with Turkey will remain with Kazakhstan, since "Tokayev was not going to curtail all this."

“But this does not mean that Turkey will be very influential in the region. To be honest, the Turkish influence in the region is now not comparable to the influence of China. But the Turkic vector will be preserved, because I do not see the desire of the Kazakh elite to abandon the multi-vector policy. Albeit in a slightly modified form compared to the era of Nazarbayev,” he believes.

It is also possible that Nur-Sultan will soon show interest in developing relations with other Asian states, for example, India, which itself is quite actively in favor of cooperation with the countries of Central Asia, or Japan.

bbabo.Net